Hitting the Calculator Again

I'm back up to 134.5 today.
So, water weight? Maybe. I have been drinking a lot (which is supposed to help) so that I can avoid water weight fluctuations and get a good picture of whether my new techniques are breaking me out of my 18 day stall. If it isn't water weight, then it means I might be missing something.

Time to look at the numbers.

Let's start with March and go all the way to May.
My weight is the weight at the END of that week. That makes more sense because it reflects how my Total and Net calories affected that weight for that week.

3/2/08: 142lbs. Total: 9808 (1400/day) Net Cals: 1269/day.
3/9/08: 141lbs. Total: 9702 (1375/day) Net Cals: 1278/day.
3/16/08: 140lbs. Total: 9464 (1350/day) Net Cals: 1276/day.
Average Exercise for three weeks: 736 calories per week.

3/23/08: 139 lbs. Total: 10500 (1500/day) Net Cals: 1390/day.
3/30/08: 140 lbs. Total: 10567 (1509/day) Net Cals: 1396/day.
4/6/08: 138 lbs. Total: 10971 (1567/day) Net Cals: 1380/day.
Average Exercise for three weeks: 957calories per week.

4/13/08: 136 lbs. Total: 10115 (1445/day) Net Cals: 1250/day.
4/20/08: 134.5 lbs Total: 10210 (1458/day) Net Cals: 1250/day.
4/27/08: 134 lbs. Total: 10078 (1440/day) Net Cals: 1220/day.
Average Exercise for three weeks: 1450 calories per week.

5/4/08: 133 lbs. Total: 10746 (1535/day) Net Cals: 1369/day.

That May 4th weight of 133 was only seen once - on that day only (so I don't know what happened to it. I'm blaming my cheap scale on that one.)
Today is May 14th and I am back at 134.5.
I have been seeing 134 and 134.5 since April 20th. Almost 4 weeks at the same weight. That's about as plateaued as I can get. I think.

Granted, I have changed how I track my exercise, so my Eat Back weeks may be a problem now. The accuracy of calories burned may be under/over estimated and pushing my body closer to my maintenance or closer to "starvation mode" (if I want to subscribe to that particular viewpoint. The jury is still out on that one.)

How has my exercise tracking changed? Well, I don't count all my exercise calories and I don't count all exercise the same way.

Old Way # 1

All exercise counts - cardio, yoga, weights, etc.
I tracked only 90% of any of those calories burned.

Old Way #2

All exercise counts.
If my average BPM (beats per minute) at the end of any exercise was:

1. above 140, I ate back 90%
2. between 112 and 139, I ate back 85%
3. anything below 112 was not counted.

Current Way

Exercise has to last longer than 20 minutes.
Any cardio over 129BPM: I subtract 1 calorie per 1 minute of exercise to account for my RMR.
All cardio between 120 and 129BPM: I count only 50% of those calories.
Any cardio under 120: not counted.
All non-cardio (such as weight training) over 125 BPM: I count 70%.
Any non-cardio under 125: not counted.

Am I underestimating?
Should I be counting any and all activity? Is my NET actually lower because I am really burning off significantly more than I am tracking?

Bah!

I seriously like my 'eat back' weeks. I start each day with the calorie intake for someone who is lightly active (which describes my life apart from exercise.) I then track all my exercise and eat back those calories. This has worked for me for quite a while, so I have no idea what is going wrong now.
Okay, before I panic. I am still in the middle of my Plateau Busting Plan. So, I will give myself to Sunday until I begin to really worry.

In any case - I had a really good workout today. Almost 5 miles. I was exhausted! Rain is coming on Friday, so I'm going to try to head out tomorrow and give myself Friday off.